BEACON is a 0 to 100 score on every game and every market: how far our model sits from the betting market, scaled by how much that disagreement deserves belief. It is not a win probability. Publicly tracked on a simulated $1,000 bankroll per sport.
Same BEACON scoring, same publicly tracked bankroll methodology. Live in CFB and NFL. NBA and MLB coming.
Every game BEACON rates is written down before kickoff, every market, bet or not: the line, the odds, our number on each, HUNCH's number, the absences priced in. It is graded from the final score within hours and posted to The Record (NFL). No cherry picking. No retroactive edits. If we are wrong, it stays on the record.
The Paper Book. Alongside the portfolio, a second public ledger puts a simulated flat $100 on every market scoring over 50 in both sports, including Lean (51–54), Strong (55–74), and Conviction (75+), tracked like a bank account from a $10,000 opening deposit: every bet, its line, its price, its result, and the running balance.
The World Cup record. BEACON's first public test ran through every day of the 2026 World Cup. The archive shows every knockout call as it was made, the final, and the report card: 25 of 31.
Our live record begins 18 September 2026. Earlier simulated results are excluded from every number on this site — they were generated retroactively and cannot demonstrate forecasting skill. We would rather show an empty record than one we cannot defend.
What the score means. BEACON 75+ Conviction: a full-size edge, four or more games of data, and a second model in agreement; the portfolio stakes 2%. BEACON 55-74 Strong: a real edge with either behind it; 1%. BEACON 0-54 Skip: the market looks right, or the sample is too thin to say otherwise. No edge means no score at any sample size, and an implausibly large edge scores zero because the model, not the book, is the likelier one to be wrong. The full reading guide is on The Ladder.