The World Cup Record

The engine. A low-scoring Poisson goal model with draw handling, a walk-forward Elo that learned from each result as it happened, a dedicated penalty-shootout simulation, and a Monte Carlo bracket re-run on every refresh. Ratings, formulas and simulation ran on the server; the page only ever showed finished numbers.

The record. Picks were published before kickoff and graded from the final score. The report card counts every knockout match the model called. A confidence of 53% means the model rated it a near coin flip; it still counts as a call, and the final is one we missed.

Why there is no profit-and-loss here. No betting prices were captured during the tournament; the stored match data carries an empty odds field. A P/L would have to invent the odds after the fact, which is the one thing this site never does. The record stands on hit rate and Brier score, which need no prices.

What changed since. Only the plumbing: the live feed the model used during the tournament has since been cut off by its provider, so this page reads the tournament's durable results store instead. The numbers are the same ones that were on screen in July.