Market Edges
Every spread, moneyline and total on the board, in kickoff order. The same engine as The Ladder, one row per market instead of one per game.
How to read this: each row is one market in one game. Model is our number after shrinking toward the market for a thin sample; the raw model number is shown beside it when they differ. Edge is how far the shrunk model sits from the market. The BEACON score (0-100) is that edge scaled by how much it deserves belief: games played, whether our points-for/against projection (a second model, different data) leans the same way, and line movement. It is not a win probability. A low score means the market and the model nearly agree, not that the lean is likely wrong. No lean on a moneyline means the model rates both sides below the book's price.